Foodstuff by Kevin Ryan
How Will Food Companies Survive the MAHA Era?: Stronger innovation and More R&D
Here is what’s in today’s edition (here is the last edition, in case you missed it):
Retailers+CPG Manufacterers: Why closer bonds are on the horizon
How Will Companies Survive MAHA?: Stronger innovation and more R&D
Minimalism is the New Processing: The next wave of plant-based
The Dumpling Boom: Why we love them
What Struggling Salad Chains Say About BFY: The economy comes for wellness
Gut Reaction: My hot takes on new offerings
Tidbits: The latest in food industry news, from the profound to the funny
Millie Bobby Brown, is partnering with Florence By Mills Coffee (together with Collab Coffee) to launch a RTD iced lattes exclusively in Walmart. Flavors include: Original Chill, Caramel Drizzle, Vanilla Bliss and Mocha Delight.
Caribbean culinary brand Golden Crust is launching a new Select Line of Jamaican patties exclusively at Walmart. In addition to its current line of chicken and beef patties, the brand is launching a Vegetable patty and a sweet Strawberry & Cream Cheese variety.
Premium hydration beverage brand Electrolit is launching a new Grapefruit variety exclusively at 7-Eleven. The 21oz square bottles will be available for spring 2025.
As part of its plan to add over 600 new items to its private label line, Target announced Good & Gather Collabs, items co-created with chefs and influencers. Up first are items like frozen pizzas and appetizers from James Beard Award-winning chef Ann Kim.
At Expo West, protein snack maker Genius Gourmet announced their partnership with the makers of SKIPPY peanut butter (Hormel Foods). The brand also launched their first protein bar made with SKIPPY; the Genius Gourmet SKIPPY Inspired Protein Nut Roll with 0 grams of added sugar.
Upcycled Foods, Inc. has partnered with Misfits Market to launch the retailer’s first upcycled breads for its Odds & Ends private label. The breads are made from the company’s ReGrained SuperGrain+, UP, Inc.’s upcycled ingredient and is blended with a signature sourdough from Puratos bakery.
Why Smart Retailer-CPG Partnerships Make Sense Now
So What? Let’s face it: the grocery industry is in turbulent waters. Amazon has finally overtaken Walmart in revenue. Walmart’s getting pushback from suppliers over trying to pass on tariff costs. Kroger lost its CEO amid troubling financial numbers, Target is facing declining traffic due to inflation and controversial DEI moves, and even Dollar General is forecasting a gloomy outlook.
On the other side, CPG brands aren’t exactly thriving either. Inflation, unpredictable consumer tastes, escalating logistics costs, and increased regulatory scrutiny have put many traditional food brands on shaky ground.
Despite sharing these significant challenges, retailers and manufacturers are still falling back into their usual competitive stances; retailers are doubling down on private labels and manufacturers are racing to out-innovate them. But I predict that in today's environment, a smarter, more collaborative strategy seems not only beneficial but inevitable. I believe we'll increasingly see stronger and more intense partnerships forming between CPG companies and retailers, and here’s why:
Private Label Has Its Limits
Retailers have significantly upgraded private labels, now capturing over 20% of grocery sales (although a slowdown is possibly starting). Yet building deep, lasting emotional connections with consumers remains challenging. Retailers see this, which is why premium packaging and celebrity endorsements and partnerships are rising. However, loyalty to national brands, built through years of emotional engagement, doesn’t fade overnight.
Unlocking the Potential of Partnerships
Instead of continuing solely with competitive strategies, retailers and CPG brands have a huge opportunity to build new, meaningful collaborations. While previously, this type of partnership would have been rare, we are increasingly seeing more exclusive offerings and tighter alliances.
Are partnerships like the following on the horizon?
· Private Label as Ingredient Supplier: Picture KIND bars at Kroger proudly stating they're made with Kroger's Simple Truth Organic Oats or, to reverse it, a private label made with a name brand ingredient (similar to how Skippy partnered with Genius Gourmet above).
· Collaborative Demand Forecasting: Retailers and brands combining AI-driven insights (e.g., Walmart and General Mills) to dramatically cut down on waste, overstocks, and out-of-stocks.
· Permanent Exclusive National Brand Lines: Instead of limited-time promotions, imagine permanent retailer-exclusive products from major brands. Imagine Kraft-Heinz creating a Walmart-exclusive condiment line that becomes as important to their portfolio as their mainstream products.
· Brand Licensing with a Twist: Some legacy brands with strong recognition but weakening sales could transition to a hybrid model where retailers essentially co-own these trusted names. The retailer drives innovation while the CPG provides manufacturing expertise.
· Regional Product Innovations: Retailers have consumer data that most CPG companies would kill for. By sharing this intelligence, retailers could guide manufacturers to develop hyperlocal products tailored to specific regions or even individual stores. Imagine Pepsi varieties formulated differently for Texas versus Minnesota based on actual preference data, not just patched together 3rd party marketing data.
· Retail White Label Services: Retailers such as Target providing their advanced logistics services (via Shipt) to help brands efficiently manage and test early stage direct-to-consumer brands.
· Digital-Enhanced In-Store Experiences: Walmart is already doing this in their more digital stores, but I see more coming. Combining physical store experiences with digital interactions, driving deeper consumer engagement far beyond traditional promotions.
Why Partnerships Are the Smart Bet
Neither private labels nor heritage brand loyalty alone will be enough in the evolving market. The smartest play, and one I expect to see adopted more widely, is a stronger strategic collaboration between retailers and CPG brands, leveraging their complementary strengths to navigate this new retail reality. Those who embrace these partnerships early will gain a significant competitive advantage.
Winning in the MAHA Era: More Innovation, Stronger R&D
Food industry leaders received a wake-up call this week as the MAHA initiative announced aggressive new measures aimed at eliminating artificial dyes, tightening scrutiny around GRAS (Generally Recognized as Safe) ingredients, and sharply reducing ultra-processed foods. Under renewed FDA scrutiny, traditional ingredients could face imminent bans or limitations.
Yet, consumer preferences have not shifted nearly as quickly as these new regulators might hope. Despite voicing strong support for healthier, more transparent food labels and fewer artificial chemicals, shoppers still demand foods that are inexpensive, shelf-stable, convenient, and great-tasting. Historically, artificial ingredients and processing provided these essential sensory and stability benefits. Now, food companies face a challenging task: aligning their products with evolving regulatory standards without disappointing consumer expectations.
Ironically, science, often associated with artificial ingredients and additives, will likely become the industry's savior in creating more "natural" products. Achieving this delicate balance will require a significant shift toward increased innovation and investment in research and development, a shift that many industry experts say is long overdue. Compared to sectors like pharmaceuticals or tech, the food industry traditionally allocates relatively modest budgets toward R&D. To continue delivering consumer-desired taste experiences without relying on traditional additives (or longer ingredient decks), companies will need to substantially ramp up investments in food science and innovation.
Europe provides valuable examples of successfully navigating similar regulatory pressures. European brands have already transitioned away from synthetic dyes, employing natural alternatives sourced from beet juice, spirulina, turmeric, and purple carrots. They have also replaced chemical preservatives with natural fermentates and cultured antimicrobials, achieving comparable shelf life and product stability.
Several cutting-edge advancements are emerging as viable replacements for old-school techniques, promising cleaner labels and equal, if not superior, product experiences:
· The EVERY Company Egg White Protein: Microbes can be used to make everything from natural flavors, colors, and preservatives without artificial additives. And they can also make egg proteins without chickens. The EVERY Company has products like macarons and smoothies with cleaner ingredient profiles.
· Oobli Chocolates: Sweetened with brazzein, a sweet protein derived through precision fermentation, Oobi’s products eliminate/reduce the need for sugar or artificial sweeteners.
· MycoTechnology's ClearIQ Bitter Blocker: This company uses mushroom fermentation to mask undesirable bitter notes naturally, reducing the need for sugar in some products.
· Nature’s Fynd Cream Cheese: This company employs fungal fermentation to mimic dairy cream cheese texture and taste, completely free from animal ingredients and with less additives.
· Mars Wrigley's 'Extra Refreshers' Gum: Recently reformulated using colors from spirulina and turmeric, entirely replacing synthetic dyes
This changing landscape sets the stage for an entirely new innovation playing field, one focused on who can best recreate beloved consumer taste experiences without labelling as containing traditional additives or needing to be heavily processed. Companies leading this transition will differentiate themselves in an increasingly health-conscious and regulatory-driven market.
Minimalism Over Processing
In line with the story above…
The alternative food landscape is experiencing an interesting transformation. The first wave of plant-based products were notably processed. From Beyond and Impossible burgers to Just Egg, these products burst on the scene with products that mimicked standard proteins but got beaten up for being more processed than what they were replacing. Now, a new wave of innovative companies is emerging with a fundamentally different approach that addresses the shortcomings of their predecessors.
Today's plant-based alternatives are shifting away from heavily processed formulations designed with long ingredient decks to more nutritionally focused, simpler offerings. These next-generation foods emphasize whole-food ingredients, minimal processing, and transparent formulations, prioritizing health benefits and simplicity.
Companies like Mez Foods exemplify this evolution with their superfood chocolate alternative. Instead of attempting to replicate conventional chocolate exactly, they've created bars packed with nutrient-dense ingredients (like mesquite) that deliver both satisfaction and wellness benefits (high fiber and protein).
Cob Foods takes a similar whole-food approach, creating a familiar popcorn eating experience via popped sorghum which amplifies the nutritional benefits.
Companies like True Company , Realsy, and Evie’s Texas Pecans represent another facet of this trend with their date and pecan-based products. Instead of processing these ingredients into a snack bar, these companies flip the idea and make the natural, whole product the star (either flavoring it or stuffing it) to give a minimally processed look that delivers on treat-like sensations.
Meanwhile, mainstream retailers like M&S are pushing the boundaries of simplicity even further with products like their Only…Ingredients cereals, such as corn flakes made with literally just one ingredient: corn. These cereals reflect an underlying consumer desire for radical transparency, minimal processing, and straightforward nutritional value.
For nutritionally concious consumers, looking for simpler products, minimalism provide a sense of security and trust.
Deep Indian Kitchen has launched Momo Dumplings, a new product line that infuses traditional dumplings with Indian flavors. Available in varieties such as Chicken Tikka Masala, Butter Chicken, Chicken Curry, and Veggie Masala, these dumplings are ready in minutes and will be available in select retail locations in late spring and early summer.
Chutzpah offers plant-based dumplings inspired by traditional Jewish cuisine, including flavors like Bubby's "Brisket" and Spicy Mushroom. These vegan dumplings are ready in minutes and can be shipped nationwide via the company’s website.
Wow Bao is introducing a line of breakfast buns. The line consists of four varieties: Bacon Egg & Cheese, Sausage Egg & Cheese, Denver Omelet and Everything Bagel. The new bao are being marketed as a convenient, microwave-ready breakfast option.
The Dumpling Boom: Why Everyone is Suddenly Obsessed
From high-end restaurants to frozen food aisles to viral TikTok videos, dumplings are everywhere. If it feels like dumplings have suddenly exploded in popularity, it’s because they have. But why? The answer lies at the convergence of several food trends that make dumplings the perfect star of the moment.
1. The Comfort of Universality
Nearly every culture has its own version of a dumpling. Whether it’s the Chinese jiaozi, Japanese gyoza, Italian ravioli, Polish pierogi, Indian momos, or Latin American empanadas, the basic concept is familiar no matter where you’re from. That sense of familiarity makes dumplings inherently comforting. Even if they’re not the dumplings you grew up with, the shape and experience are recognizable. In an era where comfort food reigns supreme, dumplings offer both nostalgia and discovery.
2. Snack or Meal? Both.
Dumplings are the ultimate scalable food experience. Eat a couple as a snack or pile them onto a plate for a full meal. They’re flexible, fitting into various eating occasions, something today’s food culture, with its emphasis on all-day grazing and snacking, is perfectly suited for.
3. Global Flavor Exploration
The modern diner is more adventurous than ever, and dumplings serve as an easy gateway into new flavors and cuisines. A plate of soup dumplings might introduce someone to Shanghainese flavors, while a bite of khinkali (Georgian soup dumplings) could spark curiosity about an entire region’s cuisine. In an age of food-driven wanderlust, dumplings are an ideal way to travel via taste buds.
4. The Humble, Yet Elegant, Dish
Dumplings are both street food and fine dining. You’ll find them sold in batches by aunties at night markets, but also on the tasting menus of Michelin-starred chefs who are reinterpreting them with luxury ingredients. This high-low dynamic makes them adaptable to any setting, and social media loves a dish that can be both humble and elevated.
5. The Age of Dipping and Sauce Obsession
We are living in a sauce-obsessed era. From the explosive popularity of chili crisp to the rise of dipping culture (see: every fast-food chain introducing new dip flavors), consumers are seeking ways to make food interactive. Dumplings are the perfect canvas for this trend. Soy sauce, vinegar, hot oil, peanut sauce, ponzu, mustard, ranch, there is no wrong way to dip. The ritual of dunking, dipping, and customizing flavors is part of what makes dumplings so fun and engaging.
6. A Flexible Option for Less Meat
Another reason for the rise of dumplings? They fit seamlessly into the growing movement of eating less meat. Unlike a traditional steak or burger, dumplings make it easy to incorporate plant-based ingredients without feeling like something is missing. The wrapper and seasoning help blend flavors together, making vegetable or tofu fillings just as satisfying as meat-based ones. For those reducing their meat intake, dumplings offer an easy, flavorful, and familiar option where the lack of meat is barely noticeable.
What’s Next for Dumplings?
With all these trends fueling their rise, dumplings aren’t just a fleeting fad. Expect to see more regional varieties making their way into mainstream food spaces, more innovative fillings and fusion takes (e.g., PB&J bao), and continued growth in the frozen dumpling category. In a world that craves comfort, exploration, and interactive eating experiences, dumplings check every box.
Struggling Salad Chains, the Economy and BFY CPG
Fast-casual salad chains like Sweetgreen, Cava, and Just Salad rode high on consumer demand for fresh, premium ingredients and a wellness-oriented lifestyle. Now, economic pressure and shifting spending habits are revealing vulnerabilities. Cava’s projected same-store sales growth of 6-8% this year is down sharply from last year's 13.4%. Sweetgreen expects an even steeper drop, forecasting just 1-3% growth in 2025 after hitting 6% in 2024.
These declining growth rates aren’t just salad-chain problems, they’re early warnings for the entire better-for-you (BFY) sector in a tightening economy.
Health Halo Meets Price Reality
For years, BFY brands enjoyed what can be called the "Better-for-You Tax," charging premiums that consumers willingly paid for products aligned with their wellness aspirations. Now, with persistent food inflation, even health-conscious, affluent shoppers prioritize affordability.
This shift is giving traditional QSR players like McDonald's and Wendy’s a chance to recapture market share. McDonald's now offers $5 value meals, while Wendy’s and Panera boost their fresh and salad offerings at prices far below boutique chains. Consumers face a simple choice: Why spend $18 at a specialty salad chain when a similar meal costs $8 elsewhere?
Broader Implications for BFY CPG
The salad chains’ struggles are just the tip of the iceberg. Economic realities reshaping fast-casual restaurants are also reshaping BFY CPG brands, and potentially more severely. Consumers once willing to pay extra for organic, sustainable, or clean-label products now seek greater value.
Three Risks BFY Brands Face Now:
Affordability as a Priority: The premium consumers once accepted for perceived health benefits is shrinking. Brands must revise their pricing strategies through value packs, bundles, or subscription models, or risk losing market share.
Retailers Shift Toward Value: Grocery and mass retailers are aggressively expanding private-label products that match BFY claims at lower prices. This forces BFY brands to justify their higher price points or develop compelling differentiation.
Innovation Must Extend Beyond Health: Simply being healthier isn’t enough. Brands need to add value through convenience, indulgence, or unique eating experiences. The "health halo" alone no longer guarantees success.
The Bigger Picture: Adaptation or Irrelevance
This moment isn’t merely about salads. It signals a larger shift where economic pressures challenge the dominant health-driven narrative that defined the past decade. Just as trends like low-carb previously reshaped the market, today's emphasis on affordability and value could determine tomorrow’s industry leaders.
BFY brands, in both QSR and CPG, must adapt swiftly. This means delivering wellness without alienating cost-sensitive consumers, innovating beyond mere health claims, and embracing a reality where affordability and accessibility rival clean labels and functional benefits.
The salad slowdown is just the beginning, the entire better-for-you industry is poised for a significant reckoning.
Sourdough is Sticking for Consumers. Why?
Sourdough has evolved from a pandemic baking obsession to a packaged food staple. What started as a quarantine hobby fueled by flour shortages and social media has now firmly planted itself in the mainstream. Today, consumers can find sourdough pretzels, crackers, crouton bites, and even snack bars on grocery store shelves.
Beyond its tangy flavor and rustic appeal, sourdough carries a health halo. Many believe its fermentation process makes wheat more digestible, offering a path back to real grains for those who previously avoided gluten. While scientific evidence is mixed, the perception is powerful. This has driven brands to highlight the ‘slow fermentation’ and ‘wild culture’ aspects of their products, tapping into growing consumer interest in gut health.
But the sourdough movement isn’t just about bread or wheat anymore. The fermentation trend is expanding into non-traditional categories, like sourdough-based buckwheat tortillas and sourdough pasta. Consumers are drawn to the idea of better digestion without relying on additives or unfamiliar ingredients. This clean-label appeal is driving innovation, with brands leveraging sourdough’s natural processing to create foods that feel both indulgent and wholesome.
I expect to see sourdough jumping the gap into more products and more categories in the next year.
GUT REACTION
TIDBITS
Food Industry
Forget McDonald’s. This Chinese Fast-Food Chain Is Now the World’s Biggest
Tesla Superchargers coming to dozens of Steak ‘n Shake locations
Papa John’s is trying to slice out a niche as the value pizza option
Kraft Heinz Starts Selling Alcohol
After losing money selling salads, SweetGreen tries selling fries
McDonald’s Gives Its Restaurants an AI Makeover
Walgreens is going private in an up to $24 billion deal
No more popping down to get chips. CVS is opening smaller stores that only have pharmacies
Grocers see record-high 80M households buy groceries online in February
What withstands a market downturn? Processed food
At C-stores, Shoppers Are Skimping on Cigarettes, Doritos and Twinkies
Wonder Acquires Tastemade for Its Latest Quest: to Make a ‘Mealtime Super App’
Starbucks tells shareholders it’s doubling down on “third place” playbook
Interesting
The Global Matcha Boom Is Driving a Shortage in Japan
People Are Claiming That This $38 Yogurt Is Making Them 'Hotter' Than Ever
What earlier Springtimes mean for crops and our food
Today’s twentysomethings are embracing the ‘Cali sober’ lifestyle
What cutting junk foods from SNAP could mean for millions of recipients
Forget Psychedelics. Everyone’s Microdosing Ozempic Now
Why has kosher salt replaced table salt in American pantries?
Is Domino’s pizza inflation-proof?
US, Canadian farmers face soaring fertilizer prices amid Trump trade war
The number of people holding multiple jobs is at the highest since Great Recession
Eli Lilly's first weight loss pill could expand access to GLP-1s around the globe
OK, I have a soft-spot for stuff like this: a mini-documentary (13 minutes) of the regulars at a 24-diner, an American institution (which we are quickly losing)
The U.S. is making more seizures of illegal eggs than fentanyl at its Canadian and Mexican borders
Why honey never expires
Mississippi Passes Bill Banning Lab-Grown Meat
Coffee theft surges in the US as prices for the beans soar
How America Got Hooked on H Mart
How Restaurants and Home Cooking Permanently Changed After the COVID-19 Pandemic
1 in 4 Gen Z and millennials say they bring their own condiments to restaurants—especially hot sauce
Fun & Odd
Want Your Home to Smell Like Your Favorite Taqueria? This Corn-Scented Incense Is for You.
Scientists Develop a Device That Lets You Taste Video Games
A Cheeto shaped like the beloved Pokémon Charizard is auctioned for $87,840
Is ranch dressing a liquid or a solid?
What would it take for CPG companies to deliver targeted formulas by state (like the Pepsi example) or in the case of a regulatory hurdle, exclude a state from distribution? Thinking about supply chain, not development.