In case you missed Part One of my 2024 predictions, you can find them here.
Here is what else I’m seeing in 2024:
Prediction #6: Protein + Gut-Health = Hunger Killer
Prediction #7: Disruption via Culinary Empowerment
Prediction #8: Fake is Fantastic!
Prediction #9: The Industry Finally Faces the ‘Sicker, Poorer, Older, Diverse, Snacking, Very Small/Very Large Household’ Reality
Prediction #10: Forget OmniChannel, Brands Will Go MultiModal
TIDBITS: Fun and interesting news from the world of food and the food industry
Gut-health brand SuperGut has made an advertising push calling prebiotics ‘Nature’s Ozempic.’ Their new Gut-Balancing Prebiotic Shake, launching in Sprouts in 2024, contains 15g protein and resistant starch to “Hit your appetite’s off switch” and “keep you full for hours.” According to CEO Marc Washington, speaking to the WSJ, sales of their products have surged 50% in the past month.
San Francisco startup Equii is launching a new complete protein and added fiber bread. Using proprietary microbial sources, the company claims to ferment grains to produce complete, high protein bread with lower carbs. The new line contains “8 grams of complete protein, 4 grams of fiber, and 45% fewer carbs than other brands” which the company says “keeps you full, builds lean muscle, and sustains energy.” The new line contains four varieties. Available at the company’s website.
Chicago-based Nature’s Fynd is launching what it claims is the world’s first fungi-based yogurt. The dairy-free product is made with the same proprietary Fy protein (derived from the fermentation of a fungi isolated from Yellowstone National Park) that the company currently uses to make meat-free sausage patties and cream cheese. The new yogurt contains 8 grams of protein and 4 grams of fiber.
India-based granola company Fit & Flex has launched a new line of granola + yogurt shelf-stable mini-bites. The crunchy, high protein and high fiber bites are made with a combination of rolled oats, corn flakes, multi-grain flakes and fermented yogurt. Available via the company’s website.
Prediction #6: Protein + Gut-Health = Hunger Killer
Protein needs a phase 2, and let’s face it, gut-health needs a phase 1. Society’s new obsession with Ozempic (and related drugs) might just be the path forward.
Protein has been riding high for over a decade now and shows little signs of slowing. However, high protein in most categories isn’t a differentiating benefit anymore, with everything from toaster pastries to soda and coffee now available with double-digit grams. With gut health you have a different problem. In that same decade, despite deep and passionate niche interest in wellness circles and a spurt of failed launches from Kraft and Kellogg, gut-focused products haven’t reached mass appeal.
I predict that the 2024 Ozempic-fueled fascination with hunger regulation will give us a food industry meet cute between these previously disparate areas. Rumor has it that all the big CPG companies, concerned about losing share, are working on foods that support an Ozempic lifestyle. Likely, these foods will be small, snack-like offerings that are high in protein and nutrients to be used when taking the drug. However, I’m not overly confident in this strategy. Unless a CPG company gains co-branding rights with one of the big drug makers, it feels like a category with little in the way of protective moats. Every start-up could claim their nutrient-dense snack is ideal for people on these drugs, and unless you have clinical proof (very difficult), it all comes down to better messaging. Plus, how many major brands are going to emblazon themselves with a burst that says Ozempic or Novo Nordisk?
Instead, I see companies exploring hunger management in a new way. Instead of being an Ozempic partner, I think they will do what SuperGut is doing and create products that combine protein and prebiotic fiber to conquer hunger naturally (protein + hunger is already trending in search). The trusted efficacy of protein paired with the esoteric ‘magic’ of the gut may be enough to forge a new benefit (plus it has scientific data behind it).
Ozempic and related drugs are expensive and are known to cause significant side effects. For both reasons, there will be a large group of people looking for a natural, less-expensive alternative. Protein + gut-health may be the answer.
Sourdough company A Friendly Bread is out with a line of frozen, premade grilled cheese sandwiches featuring their specialty loaves. Varieties include Country Sourdough with Extra Sharp Cheddar and Mozzarella, Cinnamon Raisin Bread with Brie and Mozzarella, Jalapeño Bread with Gruyere and Mozzarella, and Challah with Swiss and Mozzarella. Available in select Giant stores and online.
Professional UK bakery ingredient manufacturer British Bakels has a launched a new line of decorative icings through their B2C brand Ta-Da! The new ready-to-use icings for cake, cupcake, and pastry decorating come in three flavors: Chocolate Ganache, Madagascar Vanilla, and Millionaire’s Caramel. Available at select Tesco shops.
California-based farmer owned cooperative Danish Creamery is launching and extension to their European butter line with two new varieties: European Style Spreadable Butters with Extra Virgin Oils and European Style Butter Specialty Salt Sticks. The Spreadable butters combine the brand’s high butterfat European butters with either extra-virgin olive oil or cold extracted avocado oil. The new Specialty Salt Sticks blend their European butter with Pink Himalayan Salt, Rosemary Salt or Garlic Salt. Available at US retailers.
Fine-dining chef Daniel Humm, six-time James Beard award winner and holder of three Michelin stars, has launched a new line of shelf-stable meal kits through his Make It Nice Hospitality group. Riff comes with starches, seasonings and suggestions from Humm on how to customize (hence the name Riff). Varieties include Mediterranean-Style Couscous, Thai-Style Noodles, and Mexican-Style Rice and Beans. Available at HEB.
Prediction #7: Disruption via Culinary Empowerment
It used to be that disrupting a category was all about ‘healthifing’ it. The early aughts were prime time for small companies to come into big categories and knock down incumbents who had grown complacent in their formulations. Chobani disrupted big yogurt by offering less sugar, more protein, and a more authentic story. Big soda was disrupted by sparkling water brands that promised similar refreshment without the HFCS.
However, we are likely nearing the end of this era. The categories that needed to be ‘cleaned up’ have either seen the arrival of a BFY startup brand or were proactively healthified by the category leaders (via new formulation or acquisitions). Busting into a category with a BFY alternative is getting more difficult and it’s not the bombshell that it used to be.
But that doesn’t mean that disruption is over, it just means the methods have changed. Instead of BFY, I’m betting that the new disruptive force for categories is grounded in social media and pandemic spurred appliance trends. Sites like TikTok, Reddit, and YouTube have allowed consumers to dive deep into culinary rabbit holes, exploring topics that were previously left only to professionals. Average consumers are now exposed to PhD-level knowledge about sourdough cultures and sous vide techniques, which has translated into specialty appliance purchases (e.g., Ooni sold $70 million of their 900 degree pizza ovens in one year, seeing 300% growth).
This ‘culinary empowerment’ has significantly altered consumers’ expectations about what is ‘good food.’ Unlike years ago, when the average consumer might have heard about brioche bread in passing on the Food Network, today’s consumer has watched countless videos on its prep, bought special yeast to make it, and posted their creations online. Why would they settle for regular white bread anymore? Now they know better now.
These enhanced culinary expectations are the next disruptive force. How do you market regular frozen pizza to a consumer that owns a professional pizza oven and buys OO flour and buffalo mozzarella? Brands will need to lift their offerings and communications to meet this new informed consumer. Plus, new brands will enter the market promising an elevated version of the category norm.
Coca-Cola announced last week that their AI efforts in 2023 had paid off with record-breaking impressions and sales. Coca Cola was one of the fastest brands in the CPG world to adopt AI, partnering with Bain and OpenAI to create a series of campaigns, including the interactive ‘Create Real Magic’ platform, the takeover of the Vegas sphere and the AI created soda Y3000.
Wisconsin-based von Stiehl Winery produces wines made from grapes grown in California and Washington. Now they have released a series of wines, produced via AI, that takes consumer feedback and tasting notes and creates a ‘perfect blend.’ The company will produce an AI Red and an AI White.
Weight loss technology company Allurion has released a 24/7 AI-powered health coach that promotes healthy weight management. Coach Iris helps consumers via the Allurion app through tailored meal plans, exercise routines, and stress management techniques.
The #1 fashion model in Spain isn’t real. Fashion agency The Clueless has revealed that Aitana López, who has over 200,000 social followers, was created because of the difficulty of managing real models. She is currently modeling for brands like Victoria’s Secret, Brandy Melville and Guess. (Relatedly, fashion models in China are cutting their prices to compete against AI—signs of things to come?)
Japanese multinational beverage company Suntory has invested an undisclosed amount (“multi-millions” according to Bloomberg) in the Seattle-based beanless coffee company Atomo. The startup uses upcycled ingredients, from products like dates and sunflower seeds, to create what they say is a beverage that taste like coffee but leads to less waste and deforestation.
3D printing company Sugar Lab has released a line of bouillon ‘cubes’ shaped like a cup of ramen, a jar of kimchi, and a red squid. The printed shapes can be added directly to soups, stews and meals. The 3D bouillon contains ingredients like gochugaru and celery salt. Available on the company’s website (sold out).
Startup AI company Simulacra SDS claims that they can use existing consumer research from CPG companies to create “predictive, high-quality synthetic data.” The company says that they can take a small sample size of existing data and amplify it to produce enough synthetic data to make directional inferences about topics like purchase intent, retail placement, continuous improvement and innovation.
GoLinks, a YCombinator-backed company, is introducing GoSearch, an AI-powered service that can be incorporated into a company’s existing systems. GoSearch enables companies to use a GPT-like function to query their own files to streamline internal work.
Prediction #8: Fake is Fantastic!
For all our collective hand-wringing about AI and stated fear of deepfakes, fake news, fake meat, and fake everything, we are secretly, hopelessly fascinated with it all. And I mean that from both the consumer AND the corporate side. While we may think that the next few years will be a rational renegotiation of reality and authenticity, and potentially a rejection of technology that ‘goes too far,’ I predict we will instead run toward the simulated and fake with wild abandon. Why?
Our Insatiable Need for New: We are on, what, the 900th iteration of Marvel and the 300th version of Oreos? We have become conditioned to be quickly bored with the old and expect to be surprised and delighted continuously. For that reason, AI and alternative foods/beverages are a salvation. They allow us to scratch our itch for constant newness.
Personalization at All Costs: Mr. Rogers told us that we are all ‘special just the way you are,’ and we believed him! Now, standard coffee is not good enough anymore, we need added shots, pumps and sprinkles, just the way we like it (who cares if it’s crushing the souls of baristas). Well, humans can only do so much to bring real personalization, hence the appeal of tireless AI. Soon we will have a computer bending every transaction to our personal tastes.
Efficient Altruism: We want the world to be a better place, but we still want to consume our carbon-producing hamburgers, our deforesting chocolate and water-loving almonds. Technology to the rescue! Now we can have our (faux) cake and eat it too.
Winning Edge (corporate): For CPG companies (and retailers), competing is getting more difficult every year. Any advantage can make a difference, even if it means finding insight with synthetic consumers and AI engines. Companies in 2024 will use ‘digital twins’ and synthetic data to gain the upper hand.
Maybe we’ll fall out of love with the allure of the artificial and the synthetic, or maybe we’ll renegotiate authenticity with imitation parts. However, not next year; next year is the summer of artificiality.
Blue Apron has launched a new line of Prepared & Ready Meals. Unlike their standard meal kits which require chopping or sautéing, these refrigerated meals come ready to heat and eat. The chef-crafted single serve meals are currently available for pre-order for weekly delivery starting Jan 8, 2024.
Similarly, Kroger-owned Home Chef has launched their own heat and eat, single serve microwavable meals under a new brand: Tempo. Made with “nutrient-rich ingredients” the meals are ready in 4 minutes. Currently available in store or online.
Hellman’s Mayonnaise has launched a campaign in Canada to appeal to those concerned about frugality and waste during the holiday season. ‘Between 2 Slices’ encourages consumers to turn those leftovers into sandwiches with the help of Hellman’s Mayonnaise.
The Happy Egg Co. has launched 18-count cartons for its Free Range and Organic Free Range varieties. This marks the first value offering for the company which sources its eggs from family-owned farms in the Ozarks and the Midwest.
SleepWalk Chocolate has partnered with Chef Rick Bayless to produce a limited-edition line of chocolates with the distinct flavors of different regions of Mexico. The bars (Aztec, Oaxaca, Jalisco, and Mole) are available through Chicago’s Dark Matter Coffee website (sold out).
FritoLay launched a new ad campaign called ‘My Joy’ in partnership with Michael B. Jordan’s agency Obsidianworks. The campaign showcases the creativity of Gen Z, Black, Hispanic/Latino and Asian voices.
A1C Drinks brand has launched a line of beverages designed to help consumers manage their blood sugar, weight, diabetes and pre-diabetes. The beverage focuses on Ceylon cinnamon (a spice associated with lowering blood sugar) along with aloe vera, vanilla, black tea and select vitamins.
Prediction #9: The Industry Finally Faces the ‘Sicker, Poorer, Older, Diverse, Snacking, Very Small/Very Large Household’ Reality
Hard facts: The food industry lives in a fantasyland straight out of the 1950s. I’m not sure if it’s due to the history of the categories or the demographics and geographies of the corporations, but many CPG and QSR companies labor under the impression that the average US household is young, affluent, and white and focuses mostly eating on three meals a day.
Of course, the truth is very different:
· Bifurcating Incomes: The median household income in the US in 2022 (household, not individual) was $74, 580—that’s 5% less than 2019. We are losing the Middle Class, with most Americans either falling into Lower Income or a few rising to High Income.
· Bifurcating Households: Households with married couples is still the norm, but that is quickly fading. Instead, multigenerational households are now 4X more prevalent than they were in the 1970s. At the same time, 27.6% of households in the US contain only 1 person. In other worlds, households are getting either really big or really small.
· Diverse America: As a nation, the US will become ‘minority White’ by 2045. However, that’s not the whole story. Depending on the age group, Whites as a minority is happening faster. For those under 18, non-Whites re already are in the majority. For those 18-29, the tipping point will be 2027, for 30-39, 2033. Latinos are the fastest growing group.
· Senior America: By 2029, just 5 years from now, older adults will outnumber children in the US, with 71 million U.S. residents aged 65 and older and 69 million residents under age 18.
· Sicker America: With rising healthcare costs, increases in costs of living and aging, and negative nutritional and physical habits, America is getting sicker. Our life expectancy has dropped and diseases like cancer, diabetes and heart disease are on the rise.
· Noshing America: 59% of consumers say they prefer to eat snacks rather than meals. Plus, recent research shows that we are eating a meal’s worth of calories in our snacks every day, with the amount of snacks we are eating steadily rising to 3+ a day.
Don’t misunderstand, these companies have the data, but they consistently treat topics like snacking or groups like Latinos or small households as the exception, not the coming norm. Of all these topics, snacking is the one that has turned a corner, with many CPG companies realigning their entire portfolios post-pandemic to be more snack-focused.
I predict in 2024, we’ll see more companies reshape their portfolios with the new realities listed above. Not just via a task force or small initiative, but through major M&A and realignment. 2024 will be a turning point.
Last week, PepsiCo launched their MTN Dew Raid Twitch event. Twitch streamers were elevated by the MTN Dew brand and potentially pushed to the homepage as long as they had a bottle or can of MTN Dew visible in their video. AI technology was used to constantly monitor streamer’s feeds, looking for MTN Dew. If the MTN Dew left the screen, the streamer lost their listing.
AI-powdered Hi-Auto has introduced a new cloning technology that can simulate the voice of any person into an automated drive-thru system with only a few minutes of sampling. Currently the system is being used at Lee’s Famous Recipe Chicken restaurant in Ohio where drive thru customers are greeted by the voice of local sports broadcaster and former NFL player Keith Byars. Imagine a future where any celebrity voice could ask you if you want fries with your burger.
McDonald’s Sweden sponsored a campaign to give their most famous burger—the Big Mac—its own autograph. The company asked fans to submit their samples for a Big Mac autograph (256,000 complied) and the company used an AI system to composite them into a signature (see the video). 100 dedicated fans will receive a picture of the Big Mac with the autograph.
Startup company Typeface allows corporations to ‘teach’ their AI system the visual identities, tone, language, and other aspects of their brands to allow for seamless content output. After uploading corporate video, audio, style guides and other brand asset material, Typeface says that their system can instantly create brand copy, visuals, blog posts and social media replies with the tone, look, and feel of the brand.
Kraft Peanut Butter announced a new AI-enabled campaign in Canada. Called QJar Codes, consumers are directed to scan their empty jars of peanut butter (any jar of peanut butter, not just Kraft). The system utilizes the remaining scraps of peanut butter at the bottom of the jar combined with an AI to offer consumers a new full jar of peanut butter with same-day delivery after the scan is completed.
Prediction #10: Forget OmniChannel, Brands Will Go Multi-Modal
Did you watch the video of Google introducing their new AI called Gemini last week? While there was controversy, the buzz was in the fact that Google has gone ‘multimodal.’ That means they’ve gone beyond just text as an input or output, instead moving to a combination of text, images, motion, video and audio.
For brands, technology that allows for the interactive combination of senses and inputs will be a breakthrough. It will allow companies to reach consumers faster, with more emotional power and greater impact. It will also offer less friction. While omnichannel follows consumers to where they are going, it still requires consumers to engage with the brand in a specific way. Multimodal AI will allow brands to interact with consumers through video, audio, vocal, print and physical forms all at once. In 2024, I predict we will see some groundbreaking brand experiences created with this technology.
TIDBITS
How much does your CEO make? The annual salaries of top CPG CEOs (plus, the most ‘overpaid’ business CEOs in 2023)
Why are American’s getting shorter? (Hint: obesity, food and poverty)
McD’s going against the tide, going all in on China
31% of all children attending University of Chicago Burn Center for scalding injuries were hurt by instant noodles.
The average US fridge uses 3–5 times more electricity than an entire human being consumes in Nigeria
IKEA launches a plant-based meatball tree and giant meatball for Christmas
Lawsuit claims Panera’s charged lemonade behind second death
Eli Lily’s Zepbound is now out, the company’s answer to Ozympic
Domino’s giving $500K for snow-plowing
McCormick names top flavors for 2024
How to tell if a food is ultra-processed
Eat Just in financial peril?
Krispy Kreme becomes all the rage…in France
Beer without alcohol is more susceptible to bacteria growth
White Claw goes non-alcoholic
60% of consumers live paycheck to paycheck (even in HH making $100K+)
Alcohol-based chip—Dorito’s launches nacho cheese spirit
The mystery of the missing space tomato
China now has the most branded coffee shops than any other country in the world