This year, I’m getting an ‘early’ start on my 2024 predictions. I’m starting off here with my first five (in no particular order) with another five to follow soon. Enjoy!
Prediction #1: The Breakfast Battle Enters a New Phase
Prediction #2: The Brilliance of Gauche Gourmet
Prediction #3: Bridging the Gap Between Lifespan and ‘Healthspan’
Prediction #4: The Coming Class Divide of Automation
Prediction #5: The Revenge of Shrinkflation
Prediction #1: The Breakfast Battle Enters a New Phase
McDonald’s teased their new concept store opening soon in Bolingbrook, IL. Called CosMc’s (after the little-known McDonaldland alien mascot from the 1980’s) the small-format store is shrouded in mystery. However, several people have taken candid shots of their drive thru menu and it is heavy with Starbuck’s-like drinks (e.g., S’mores Cold Brew, Turmeric Spiced Latte) and an all-day breakfast menu (e.g., Egg McMuffins, Hash Brown Bites). The Bolingbrook site opens in 2024.
Crumbl has lost its cookies, at least on its logo. The chain released a new logo design via social and it no longer contains the baker’s head or the word ‘cookies.’ Chief Branding Officer Sawyer Helmsley told Restaurant Business Online that the logo change was “not a complete rebrand.” However, there appears to be changes afoot for the bakery chain as regional launches have indicated the company is playing around with breakfast concepts. For example, they released a ‘Cinnamon Square Morning Bun’ (basically a cinnamon roll) in select markets.
Wendy’s Canada is out with a new Chicken Strips & French Toast Sticks combo. Inspired by a TikTok user’s @malakshagar5 post (deemed ‘syrupdipity’), the chain has released this duo on their all-day menu.
Burger King is testing a new Grill’wich breakfast sandwich. The sandwich consists of grilled flatbread, eggs, American cheese and a choice of protein (bacon, sausage or Black Forest ham). Testing is taking place in the Detroit and McAllen-Brownsville, Texas markets and comes paired with French Toast Sticks.
Taco Bell is reportedly testing Breakfast Tots in the Chicagoland area. The tots reportedly are seasoned and paired with scrambled eggs, sausage or bacon, creamy jalapeño sauce, and three-cheese blend. Apparently, Nacho Tots are also being tested.
Hardee’s is now offering Candied Bacon both as an add-on breakfast item as well as a standalone snack. The new bacon, coated in caramelized brown sugar and black pepper, comes in a ‘snack pack’ sleeve or as part of the Candied Bacon Biscuit or Candied Bacon Frisco Sandwich.
So What? When you think of fast food, your mind probably gravitates toward burgers, fries, or viral chicken sandwiches, but it’s really breakfast that is powering these companies. Prior to the pandemic, breakfast was the ‘final frontier’ for fast food and QSRs, and since 2022, visits for breakfast have now surpassed pre-pandemic levels.
Fast casual breakfast-only chains (e.g., First Watch, Snooze Eatery, and Another Broken Egg) have also exploded in growth and acquisitions (e.g., Denny’s buying Keke’s Breakfast Café). Fast food companies that have made breakfast a priority (e.g., Wendy’s) have seen a substantial bump in revenue. Speaking to Business Insider back in August, Carl Loredo, Wendy's global CMO, said
"We're competing with Cheerios as much as we're competing with the next QSRs these days."
What I think we’ll see in 2024 is an all-out breakfast war in QSRs, and a spillover into CPG. Not only will we see breakfast menu development increase in QSR (that’s already happening), but we’ll also see new concept launches (e.g., what if Panera launched small-format breakfast-only shops without an internal bakery?).
For CPG this signals troubling times. In 2024, I think we’ll see some very ugly breakfast-related packaged good declines. Traditional breakfast fare like RTE cereal is struggling after a pandemic boom and even promising categories like yogurt have stabilized after previous highs (with companies like Chobani and Yoplait now chasing dessert—Chobani Creations, Haagen Dazs Cultured Crème). To wrestle breakfast back from QSRs, they’ll have to attack the motivations that are causing people to eat breakfast out of home:
Time Pressure: Many people feel that the clock starts ticking on their workday when they leave the house in the morning. Sitting at your kitchen counter and eating means losing time. You’re either portable or you’re dead in the water.
Perceived Value: Grocery buys and ‘stop at McD’s’ buys come out of different consumer ledgers. The same person that recoils from paying $6 for a box of cereal that is (realistically) 3-4 servings, thinks nothing of paying $4 for one breakfast combo meal. CPG must change the value perception.
Social Trendiness: QSRs are doing a good job of making themselves ever-present on social and driving the narrative that fast food breakfast is the way to go. CPG’s social game doesn’t feel as strong yet.
Taste, But Not Health: You’ll hear the refrain that people are escaping to these fast-food breakfasts because they have more protein. Yeah, no. That’s what they people tell you when you ask them on a survey. It’s great justification for eating a tater tot pile loaded with eggs, sausage and cheese. But honestly, it’s really just taste. I love cereal, but compared to deep-fried carbs and gooey cheese, there is no contest. CPG needs to stop taking the consumer at their word and hone in on taste.
Prediction #2: The Brilliance of Gauche Gourmet
Skky Partners, the private equity firm founded by Kim Kardashian and business partner Jay Sammons, has purchased a minority stake in the condiment company TRUFF. Founded in 2017, TRUFF makes condiments infused with the flavor of truffles. The company started with a signature truffle hot sauce and has gone on to make truffle oils, mayonnaise, pasta sauce and more. The company has recently formed partnerships with Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen, Hidden Valley Ranch, Taco Bell and The Super Mario Brothers Movie.
Pringles announced a limited-edition collaboration with The Caviar Company. Three Pringle x Caviar Company kits (retailing for $49, $110 and $140) are now available via an online shop. The partnership was spurred by a popular TikTok trend of pairing the iconic crisps and the deep-sea delicacy.
Italian luxury fashion brand Moschino has partnered with Milanese pastry shop Martesana to create a gold-foiled panettone cake for the holidays. The traditional fruitcake is packed with hazelnuts and dried orange peel and topped with gold leaf. Available via the company’s website.
St. Louis-based high end micro-creamery Clementine’s Naughty & Nice Ice Cream has launched a new flavor: Red Velvet Cupcake. However, unlike other cake-flavored ice creams, this one has a whole cupcake embedded in the pint. The pints are only available in-person at the company’s Missouri and Illinois-based shops.
Pastry chef Jessica Entzel Nolan has launched a new frozen cookie dough brand called Doughpamine. The company offers pouches of frozen dough discs in a variety of sophisticated-but-standard flavors like Miso Peanut Butter, Blueberry Corn, and Rhapsody Road (their more adult version of Rocky Road). Available via the company’s website and in select San Francisco Bay markets.
So What? If you’ve seen lobster mac & cheese, Wagyu beef sliders, Supreme x Oreos, or Gucci’s partnership with The North Face, you’ve already seen this strange trend in the wild. I say strange because each of these products is the embodiment of two forces you normally don’t see together: luxury and lowbrow, practical and fanciful, or elegant and every day. Why are we seeing the rise in popularity of these products and what can we expect in the future?
Breaking Down Barriers: Traditionally, consumer goods have been segmented into clear categories - luxury vs. practical, distinctive vs. banal. However, these products and collaborations blur these lines, challenging the conventional wisdom about what categories mean and who they are for. It reflects a cultural shift towards more fluid, less binary perceptions of consumer products. In many ways, it challenges the old marketing paradigm of consumer personas where purchase drivers fit in only in one quadrant. Instead, it recognizes the complexity of modern consumers.
New Hybrid Consumer Identities: Today's consumers are more multifaceted, or at least not willing to compromise on their contradictory desires. Someone might appreciate the practicality of The North Face AND the aesthetics of Gucci, simultaneously. These mashups cater to hybrid consumer identities, acknowledging that people have diverse tastes and interests.
Democratization of Luxury: By combining luxury with everyday items, brands are making luxury more accessible. It's not about diluting the luxury brand but rather expanding its reach and relevance. This democratization can make luxury seem more attainable and less intimidating to the average consumer (and increase the size of the base for the brand).
Delightfully Naughty: Another reason these products are so powerful is that their very existence seems transgressive. Eating caviar with Pringles is like playing catch with a Fabergé egg. It seems wrong, but who won’t want to give it a try if given the chance. It’s this shock factor, combined with our own mischievous and curious natures, that partially makes these products work. Plus, shock is amazing for grabbing social media attention, a must for brand growth today.
Potential for More ‘Tension Brands’: I very much expect to see new brands pop up that combine more fancy ingredients with everyday items (e.g., saffron, foie gras, civet coffee, or Caciocavallo Podolico cheese), however those are likely limited. Instead, I see a future where more traditional brands are purposefully juxtaposed against seemingly conflicting brands, ingredients, and experiences. The winning brands will be those that don’t just do this for pure shock value, but instead really lean into feeding the desires of their hybrid consumers.
Prediction #3: Bridging the Gap Between Lifespan and ‘Healthspan’
Body building/sports brand Inspired Nutraceuticals has launched a hydration beverage called Endless. Beyond a blend of Aquamin marine minerals and pink Himalayan salt, the beverage also contains Yuth™ (Spermidine) “to combat the side-effects of aging.” The product is available on the company’s website.
Veterinary biotech company, Loyal for Dogs, has developed a drug that may extend the lifespan of large canine breeds. According to a letter supplied to the NYT, the FDA has said that the initial data is "sufficient" to show "a reasonable expectation of effectiveness. LOY-001, the first version of the drug, is injectable, but the company is working on LOY-002 and LOY-003 that are daily pills. The current goal is for the drug to extend a large breed dog’s life by at least a year and maybe more.
Based on the popular series of books, and now Netflix show, that extol the longevity secrets of the most long-lived populations on the planet, Blue Zones Kitchen has launched a series of frozen meals. Using the food principles and cuisines of the Blue Zones (e.g., Okinawa, Sardinia), the meals are “Crafted for Longevity.” Available in select markets.
BrainJuice is launching a new line of coffee and tea-based beverages called BrainJava to help consumers with enhanced energy. Using a proprietary blend of nutrients, the brand claims to help support brain health, brain function, focus, clarity mood, and concentration. Available in five flavors, including a seasonal peppermint mocha latte.
Daily Crunch has launched an LTO of their sprouted nut medley called Spiced Chai Pear. “Easier to digest than other nut snacks” and naturally heart-healthy, the snack has a low-glycemic index and is high in antioxidants. Available via the company’s website.
So What? Have you ever heard the saying, “It’s not the years in your life, it’s the life in your years that counts?” Well, that’s not quite right anymore. People don’t just want to live a long life; they ALSO want to live a healthy one. While medical advances are pushing us all toward a lifespan of 100+, people are becoming concerned about their ‘healthspan’ as well. What’s the use of living to an advanced age if you are incapacitated for the last quarter?
With some Baby Boomers reaching their 70s, it should not be a surprise that bridging the gap between lifespan and ‘healthspan’ is becoming big business. Companies like Healthspan Technologies , Clock.Bio, and Cambrian Bio are just a few of the startups using holistic nutrition and advanced biotechnology to maintain vitality, mobility, and mental clarity throughout life.
However, it feels like food and beverage are a step behind when it comes to all this. While brands need to find the right language to market to the 65+ crowd (hint: it’s labeling as ‘senior’), too many brands avoid this demographic all together. However, all you have to do is look at the record-setting ratings for a show like The Golden Bachelor, where a 72-year old guy looks to romance a series of 60+ women, to realize that longevity messaging sells.
As I’m looking ahead to 2024 and beyond, I see more products and brands focusing on longevity.
Prediction #4: The Coming Class Divide of Automation
A few weeks ago, Booths, a British higher-end supermarket chain, announced that they were removing self-checkout machines from their stores. The company said that the machines were “slow, unreliable, and impersonal” and that human cashiers offered a better experience. Booth’s isn’t the first supermarket to reverse course on self-checkout machines. PCC Community Markets in Seattle removed them in 2019 citing the company’s desire to ‘put human interaction first” (though the company did re-introduce some during COVID to limit virus spreading).
While companies like Walmart, Kroger and Target concede that there have been issues, self-checkout systems continue to grow (now comprising ~40% of grocery store options in US) as companies see the financial upset.
My prediction is that this clash over self-checkouts signals a future where automation in stores and restaurants becomes a marker of class. Right now, seeing a robot make a salad or deliver your food is a celebrated novelty regardless of the cost of your lunch. However, as restaurants like Wendy’s and Taco Bell scramble to add self-ordering kiosks and front-of-house QSR robots become commonplace, I believe this type of automation will become just as associated with fast-food as brightly colored plastic booths were to McDonald’s. Less human contact will equate to cheaper restaurants and discount supermarkets, which means it will also develop a class-based impression.
Higher end grocers and restaurants will still move to automation, but it will remain back-of-house. ‘Hospitality’ and ‘customer service’ via human interaction will become sellable features, much like today’s companies who market their premium member support lines by saying you talk to a ‘real person’ and not a computer.
Prediction #5: The Revenge of Shrinkflation
BabyBel cheese is releasing a 200g Maxi version of their iconic snack cheese. This new version is 10X bigger than the classic but made with the same ingredients and coated in the shiny red wax. Available for a limited time in UK stores.
Subway has announced that their footlong cookies will now be a permanent item on the menu. Launched in 2022 in their dessert only pop-up CookieWay, the big cookie sold out within 2-hours. The cookie, available only in chocolate chip, will hit stores in 2024.
Fast food brand Jack-in-the-Box has launched the 24 Days of Jackmas promotion. The event offers Jack Pack rewards members a potential free reward each day by making a purchase of $1 or more. The promotion includes a different complimentary reward for each day of the week (e.g., Oreo Shake, free egg rolls) and will start December 1 and run through December 24, 2023.
United Airlines will begin offering self-serve snack stations to economy flyers. The kiosks will offer a "limited supply of water and the snacks offered during the complimentary service," including That’s It fruit bars, Undercover chocolate quinoa crisps and a savory snack mix. The kiosks will be available in-flight after the regular service has concluded.
So What? Currently, 94% of consumers are worried about the cost of food and 73% are concerned about shrinkflation (i.e., where the cost of a product stays the same but the size/amount decreases). Not only are consumers concerned, they are irritated, with 58% feeling that shrinkflation is “unacceptable” and deceptive. In fact, it’s getting so bad that consumer conspiracies are popping up online, with rumors of companies secretly altering products to say money (see the recent Oreo filling conspiracy).
Consumers are losing trust.
In Louisianan Creole there is the term called lagniappe. Back in the old days, when you went to a merchant or a grocer and they wanted to show their gratitude for your patronage, they’d throw a little something extra in your bag as a thank you—a lagniappe (e.g., an extra doughnut, a sample of a new product, etc.).
I think this concept is about to get revived as CPG and foodservice find themselves trying to regain consumer trust. With 54% of US consumers now saying they plan to buy “much more” private label products in the future, I think we have reached the end of inelasticity. Instead, brands will need to break out the lagniappes, making products bigger, pointing out the presence of an expensive ‘hero’ ingredient, or offering ‘extras.’
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