Here is a link to my last newsletter, in case you missed it.
In this week’s newsletter:
News and Events: What I’m doing in May
Trends are Too Fast: Can the food industry keep up with trends anymore?
Just a Splash: Why we are seeing so much alcohol in food?
FREE REPORT: New Trend Report from Spate
Can We? Why you need to give your consumer permission
New Product Gut Reaction: The WOW! and the WHAT?
TIDBITS: Fun and interesting news from the world of food and the food industry
NEWS & EVENTS
Before we jump into the newsletter, I want to plug a few events I’m doing in the next few weeks.
First up, I’m honored to be part of an upcoming webinar (May 9th) hosted by The Economist as part of their Sustainability Week Insight Hour. Together with Florian Schattenmann (CTO/VP of Innovation and R&D at Cargill) and Nici Bush (VP Innovation, Science and Technology at Mars), we are talking about the current and future state of sustainability in the food industry. I’m looking forward to the conversation with Nici and Florian. You can register for free here: Flavouring the future: innovation for food and the bioeconomy.
Also, I’ll be doing a live Think & Link event on May 23rd in Minneapolis (and via Linkedin Live) (hosted by Capsule). I’m on stage with the truly amazing CEO of Back to Nature (and former GM/VP at General Mills) Jennifer Jorgensen, where we will be talking about all things innovation in the food industry (my favorite topic!). Join us for 60-minutes of Q&A and fun networking—get your tickets here.
Getting Run Over by the Trend Cycle
Pictures of Starbuck’s Summer menu have leaked online (IG @ @markie_devo) and it looks to contain a new Summer Berry Refresher line with boba (or pearls, as the CEO Laxman Narasimhan calls them). No significant reviews just yet, but the flavors appear to be Summer Berry Refresher, Summer Berry Lemonade Refresher, and Summer Skies Drink Refresher.
Trader Joes is launching a new Dark Chocolate Coffee Buzz Bar, with each bar containing as much caffeine as a shot of espresso. Each 3.5oz package contains four 0.88oz bars. Available in store.
Walmart has announced their biggest private label launch in 20 years. bettergoods offers “a new elevated experience that delivers quality, unique, chef-inspired food at an incredible value.” Many of the initial 300 bettergoods offerings (spanning multiple categories) are not ‘me-tos’ but new concepts falling into three ‘pillars:’ culinary experiences, plant-based, and ‘Made without.’ Walmart says the majority of bettergoods will be under $5.
So What? Last week wasn’t so kind to Starbucks and its new CEO. The stock was down 15% in trading after the company announced a 4% drop in comparable same-store sales (exacerbated by mobile app users frustrated with long waits) and softening demand in China.
However, what’s lost in this conversation of international competition and technology issues is that Starbucks is just…not as cool as it once was. Previously the leader in trends, now the company is rolling out their ‘first innovation in texture technology’ as though pearls (aka boba) was a radical new offering. This is following the company’s recent launch of sweet & spicy lemonade when sweet heat is so old that Vlasic pickles beat them to the punch!
But Starbucks isn’t alone, the other paragon of mainstream trendiness, Trader Joe’s, is also slipping. Recent launches, like the chocolate-coffee bar, are both eerily like popular small brands (an issue of raised before) but also a few steps behind the zeitgeist.
What we’re seeing is food culture lapping the food industry. The trend cycle is so fast today that TikTok is already bored with a new flavor or cuisine before a company has even noticed it. Agile methodologies, which were developed partially to help with these speed-to-market issue, are ineffective when faced with complex supply chains and corporate recalcitrance. Instead of meaningful innovation, brands default to flavor innovation to keep excitement high. For example, Starbuck’s Tryer Center says they can develop and launch an innovation in <100 days, but boba drinks have been in-development since 2021. Instead, what has been developed is a plethora of social media led flavor combos that are straining baristas, cluttering boards, and confusing consumers.
I pick on Starbucks and Trader Joes, but the same thing is happening in CPG companies as they struggle to keep up with the over-heated metabolism of today’s food culture. I believe accelerating trend cycles will radically alter the CPG world in the next five years. Here is what I’m predicting:
Industry Pivots
Embrace of AI/Digital Tools: When ‘fast fashion’ almost killed the big fashion houses, those that survived turned to digital and AI tools to help them get ahead of the curve. Not just in trend identification but in all aspects of manufacturing and sourcing. CPG will be no different. To survive trend acceleration, CPG will need to use these tools to speed up their game.
Subscription Models Rising: Many software companies have survived the rapid tech hype cycle by moving to a subscription model to smooth out the volatility of trend-based purchasing, I can see this accelerating even in big CPG as they relook at DTC. (See: Amazon just launched their grocery subscription business).
Content Diversification/Selective Trend Adoption: Media companies have had to move away from big ‘tentpole’ blockbusters and toward smaller niche films and TV to maintain relevance. Similarly, CPG will likely need to focus their attention on more niche, but profitable, sub-groups where they have the granular data and scale to correctly anticipate the next ‘big thing.’
Evergreen Products and Innovations: Instead of trying to beat the trend curve, more companies will decide to jump off and invest in longer-term innovation. Of course, thee companies will need to have a healthy core ‘engine’ of products to fund this strategy, but we’ll see it happen.
Industry Watchouts
Sustainability Blowback: The only thing that hindered fast-fashion’s takeover of the industry was the amazing amount of carbon it produced. This has opened the door to ‘slow fashion’ as a counter trend, which comes at a higher price but appeals to consumers that appreciate the environmental and ethical benefits. I can see an equivalent message resonating in CPG.
Consumer Fatigue: After a while, all the rapid, new product launches becomes a blur and people begin to crave more consistency and differentiation. Not every brand and consumer can move at the speed of trends.
Private Label Pulls Ahead: The winner of trend acceleration is likely to be retailer brands. With their comprehensive supply chains and distribution networks, companies like Walmart and Target are ideally positioned to roll out the latest trendy flavors and forms at a low price. Favorite Day and bettergoods could become the Temu and Shein of CPG, fulfilling consumers desires to taste the trends quickly and inexpensively. The only problem is cachet, these retailers don’t have a lot of it, so they’ll look to brands (and celebrities) to bring it. Manufacturers must ask themselves, ‘do we want to compete or do we want to play a different game’ (see above Selective Trend Adoption and Evergreen Innovations).
The Continuing Emotional Resonance of Alcohol
Hard ice cream brand Proof has added a Chocolate Espresso Martini flavor to its core line. Like with their other ice creams, the new flavor isn’t just flavored with alcohol, it contains 5% alcohol by volume. Available at select liquor and grocery stores.
Miller High Life has partnered with Hot N Saucy hot sauce to create Dive Bar Hot Sauce. The flavor is said to be based on “specific memories associated with dive bars… [C]hipotle peppers were used to add a bit of heat, alluding to the “hot” neon signs hanging in the window. Smokiness was added as a nod to the dive bar scent, with lemon pepper juice serving as an homage to the house wings.” Available at Hot N Saucy.
In New York, dirty martini-based foods have taken over menus. La Rose Pizza in Cobble Hill has debuted a Detroit-style ‘dirty martini pizza.’ Made with spicy vodka sauce and olives. Midtown East’s Copinette has a Talentini (Talenti Madagascar Vanilla Bean Gelato, Gin-Spiked Dirty Honey Brine, Blue Cheese Crumble, Lemon Zest, Green Olives). Lastly, Chelsea Living Room has a dirty martini dip (which as Eater points out is all the rage on TikTok).
Super-premium gin maker Malfy has partnered with sorbetto brand Remeo to create a Malfy Spritz Sorbetto lolly (aka popsicle). The sweets are made from a mix of Italian blood oranges (45%), Prosecco, lemon, bitters and Malfy Con Arancia. Available in Waitrose and coming soon to Ocado.
So What? You wouldn’t think that with alcohol consumption rates declining, alcohol-based food partnerships would increase, but I think there is a direct correlation. While much of the decline in alcohol (especially among younger consumers) is due to health concerns and the availability of other recreational drugs, the emotional resonance of alcohol is still extremely strong.
Alcohols and alcohol brands are very good at connecting themselves with a feel-good emotion (e.g., sophistication, celebration, romance, etc.). Even if someone is reducing their consumption of the alcohol, that doesn’t mean that the ‘branding’ of the product isn’t any less powerful. In a sense, this co-branding allows consumers to ‘have their alcohol and drink it too;’ the emotions of the alcohol ‘leaking’ into the food and the moment.
Therefore, I’d predict as more people limit how much they imbibe, we’ll see an increase in these alcohol-based foods.
FREE REPORT: MALACHITE + SPATE
I’m happy to announce the latest report in my ongoing partnership with the AI-powered trendspotting firm Spate. This time around, the team at Spate has put together a great report looking at the rising TikTok trends around international foods. Using their new convergence score tool, that combines TikTok views and Google searches, the report highlights some interesting international flavors and dishes that are gaining traction. Plus, you’ll get to read my take on things. FoodStuff subscribers can access this report for free: TikTok’s Rising International Food Trends.
We Need More Permission Marketing
All-natural meat company True Story has launched a line of Protein Toppers. The toppers consist of fully cooked chicken cut into cubes and portioned for easy use. They are available in three flavors, each with 15g of protein: Roasted Garlic, Oven Roasted and Teriyaki Sesame.
Personal wellness brand Clean Eatz Kitchen (which offers meals via DTC and their cafés) is now offering ‘Just the Meatz’, a bulk order of their popular proteins without sauce or sides. The six proteins (brisket, BBQ pulled chicken, shredded beef, steak strips, diced chicken, and honey garlic chicken) each come in resealable containers.
Nature Valley has launched Honey Blueberry Yogurt Toppers, a mixture of oats and honey granola, dried blueberries, almonds, and pumpkin seeds. Each package contains 8 individual pouches ready to be used for sprinkling. It looks to be a Walmart exclusive.
BFY dessert brand Deux has launched Grandma’s Oatmeal Chocolate Cookie Dough. The edible dough is made with organic flaxseed, cashew butter, organic sugars and Jasmine tea extract. The company says it can be eaten either raw or rolled into balls and cooked. Available at select retailer or online.
So What? There is a question that has been plaguing me for months that I need to discuss: whole body deodorant, what is it and why is it suddenly everywhere?
If you’ve somehow missed this hygiene trend, let me catch you up. Whole body deodorant (WBD) is just what it sounds like, deodorant that isn’t targeted to the traditional deodorant hot spots but meant for anywhere. Lumē was one of the first brands out there, and their ads are now ubiquitous, but Dove, Secret and Native now all have their own versions.
If you look deeply into this topic (and I have), you’ll find that there are several key drivers:
· Odor anxiety: Post-pandemic, companies found that consumers (especially younger generations) were expressing more anxiety about body odor, concerned that they weren’t smelling ‘fresh’ enough
· More active lifestyles: people want deodorants that are more open to their personal fitness routines
· Science: body odor actually does originate from beyond the armpits and many of the sprays and sticks on the market just aren’t made for these spots. WBD is more inclusive of everyone’s body.
· Profit: of course, it goes without saying that a consumer will need to use and buy more deodorant if they are applying it beyond a few spots. The volume potential is very attractive to deodorant makers.
However, there is one driver that surprised me more than the rest when I uncovered it. I was talking to a friend about this topic, and he mentioned that he used WBD because he never knew he could. Prior to hearing about WBD, he never thought of the idea. A couple of sprays in the morning and he figured he was good. If it wore off, it was just time to apply more. However, when he saw an ad for WBD he had an epiphany that maybe his problem was he wasn’t applying deodorant in enough places. The existence of WBD both made him aware and gave him permission to use deodorant in ways he never thought possible.
I’ve seen similar things in food and beverage. I was once in an in-home interview with a consumer that LOVED Cinnamon Toast Crunch cereal, he had it every morning and sometimes for a meal. Offhandedly, he mentioned that he frequently ate a bowl of vanilla ice cream for dessert while he watched TV, and I casually asked him if he ever sprinkled Cinnamon Toast Crunch on his ice cream. You’d think I’d given him a winning Powerball ticket! He was just stunned. Not only had he never thought to do that, but he didn’t KNOW that he could. Once he recovered from his shock, he actually said, “You can do that?”
One of the things holding consumers back from using your product in expansive new ways is your own marketing. While early messaging needs to focus on an occasion that will get the most trial, it can also desensitize consumers from experimentation.(e.g., cereal belongs in a bowl). There is a lot of volume to be had in providing permission-based marketing that opens consumers eyes to new product uses and says that using it in this way is ‘normal.’
Of course, for some products, opening up usage parameters can also spark new innovation (see WBD). The formula might need to radically changed to make it more versatile. For other products it might just be packaging. The Nature Valley Toppers above accomplishes this with single serve pouches and a clear callout of a new use ‘yogurt toppers.’
How could you give your consumer permission to expand the use of your product?
NEW PRODUCT GUT REACTION
TIDBITS
How Uncrustables became a $1B empire
Tech legend Kevin Kelly has added 101 more tips to his ‘Excellent Advice for Living’
Why young, American farmers are burning out
New lawsuit claims those giant sodas at movie theaters aren’t as big as they advertise
Morgan Stanley survey finds GLP-1 drugs are dragging down food sales (in store and at restaurants)
Amazon introduces shoppable, ad-supported channel to Prime Video, Freevee
Amazon launches new grocery subscription service in the US
Big brands that might be hardest hit if TikTok disappeared
What the loss of TikTok could mean for the food world in general
Meet China’s boba billionaires
‘Can I Lick It?’—which elements in the periodic table are safe to lick (FYI, I’m not recommending you lick any)
Mi scusi? Milan set to ban the sale of ice cream and pizza after midnight
Newest wedding must-have: party robots
Two million bottles of Perrier were destroyed due to fecal bacteria contamination
Chipotle tells workers to stop eating the al pastor and save it for customers, then says ‘ok, go ahead’
Consumers shopping at more stores to deal with inflation
Subway finally sold to Roark Capital
Walmart closes 51 health clinics and virtual care service
McDs sees lower earnings and says consumers are pulling back from fast food due to inflation
Dave & Busters to allow customers to bet on arcade games (already being contested)
John Legend and Chrissy Tiegen launch Kismet dog food
Florida becomes first state to ban lab-grown meat
Tech-enabled wine and spirit buy/trade/discovery system Unicorn gets $5.8M in seed funding
Starbuck’s turnaround plan is called “Triple Shot Reinvention with Two Pumps’ (no, I’m not making that up)
Walmart is skipping receipt checks at their Sam’s Club exits using AI-scan technology