Culture Matters
Why the Future is 'Impossiblized'; Botanicals are Coming; Non-Alternatives Fight Back
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Why the Future will be ‘Impossible-lized’
WNWN Food Labs has launched a line of ‘chocolates’ made without chocolate (currently sold out). Using fermented barley and carob, the UK-based company produces confections that, they say, helps win the fight against ‘Big Chocolate,’ and reduce the impact cacao harvest and processing has on people and the planet.
Voyage Foods has just announced that their startup has raised an additional $36 million in Series A funding. The California-based company is gearing up to produce chocolates, coffees and peanut butters that aren’t actually made from the real ingredients. For example, Voyage ‘peanut -free spread’ is made from a combination of sunflower seeds, chickpeas, grapeseed, buckwheat and wild rice. The company proclaims that their product line will ‘future proof’ the food and drink we love.
Joe’y is a new ‘not coffee’ beverage brand that was just selected for Target’s Forward Founders accelerator program. Made from a mix of cacao, barley, dandelion and chicory roots, ashwagandha and mushrooms, Joe’y is meant to give consumers the same ritual as drinking coffee with less of the jitters, more of the energy and the benefits of adaptogens.
Field Roast, a Maple Leaf brand, has launched a new plant-based queso dip under their Chao Vegan Creamery line made from fermented tofu, bell peppers, paprika and spices. The company claims their formulation delivers on the creamy, smooth mouthfeel that consumers expect when it comes to cheese dips.
Daily Harvest has launched a line of plant-based crumbles made from a mix of vegetables, seeds and spices, designed to be used as toppings on pizza and pasta and taco and as sandwich fillers. The Crumbles are available in two varieties: Walnut+Thyme and French Lentil+Leek.
So What? The history of food substitutes goes back much further than you think. If a food product exists, it’s a good bet that someone, somewhere has made a faux version of it. What’s interesting—not just historically but for the future-- are the reasons why. Food mimics aren’t just modern scientific creations, they are millennia-old solutions to a series of problems. Some of the problems they’ve helped solve:
· Health/Wellness (see Postum, a Joe’y of another generation, the cereal coffee that eased the caffeine anxiety of the 20th century)
· Allergy (see the invention of Bird’s Custard due to the inventor’s wife’s egg allergy)
· Religion/Ethics (see seitan, the gluten-based mock duck of Buddhist cuisine)
· Supply Chain Issues (see how Cool Whip solved cream’s perishability issue by being shipped frozen)
· Food Shortages due to:
o Conflict (see the invention of margarine to fuel Napoleon’s army, or ersatz goods in Germany)
o Embargos (see the invention of Fanta by Nazi Germany due to US trade embargo)
o Over farming/Overfishing (see surimi, the imitation crab product that grew from overfishing)
In the next decade, each of the above problems will not only occur again but likely with increased frequency. Add to that the impact of de-globalization and inflation, and you arrive at a perfect mix of problems for which food substitutes are the best solution.
However, climate change may be the biggest reason these types of products expand in the next decade. Record-breaking drought in the American West is upending the industry. California hasn’t been this dry ever, and it is causing food prices to skyrocket. Soybean prices are at a 10-year high, corn is near its all-time peak and avocados are a fortune at the grocery store. This is causing many farmers to reconsider planting water-heavy crops (like fruit) and switching to higher value crops or more drought-tolerant products.
I think we may be on the cusp of a radical shift toward ‘Impossible-like’ products not because its seen as virtuous or trendy, but because the alternative is not having the original product at all. Whereas in other eras, many of these substitutes have been met with distaste due to their poor quality, advances in technology along with modern marketing may be preparing us for a future where substitutes become the real thing.
Herbal Awakening
Waku is a Boston-based startup producing Ecuadorian-inspired teas. The brand claims that every bottle contains a “powerful botanical blend that has anti-inflammatory and digestive benefits.” Based on a “centuries-old Ecuadorian recipe locally known as ‘horchata lojana,’” the teas have zero sugar and 6 grams of prebiotic fiber. Waku has been selected as one of the five brands to participate in the Pitch Slam at this year’s Summer Fancy Food Show.
Navina is advertising itself as ‘a cleaner wine made from herbs and botanicals.’ Starting with a base of non-GMO wine grapes from northern California, the company then adds organic herbs and yeast to produce what they call ‘herbal wine.’ Varieties include Hibiscus Pinot Noir and Marigold Flower Wine. Navina was chosen as one of Target’s Forward Founders this year.
MABÏ is an herbal drink brand inspired by the traditional mauby bark-based drinks consumed in the Caribbean. While the classic drinks are often fermented and contain a lot of sugar (to counter the bitterness of the bark), this modern unfermented version does not contain sugar, and uses monk fruit as a sweetener. Combining herbs, flowers and spices, the drinks are meant to be consumed on their own or with the addition of alcohol. MABÏ is also one of Target’s Forward Founders this year.
Inspired by the flavors of Ghana and Louisiana, Phreshly is a new canned cocktail with “sophisticated flavors.” Started during the pandemic by three Atlanta area tech alums, Phreshly combines alcohol, fruit and herbs for a ‘zesty take on cocktails.’ Varieties include Bay Lemonade (Bourbon+Strawberry+Lavender) and G’iddem (Rum+ Blueberry+ Lemongrass). Phreshly is also one of Target’s Forward Founders this year.
So What? If you talk to most trend watchers, they’ll tell you that anything botanical is hot right now. However, the explanation I typically hear about why this is the case, often mentions the pandemic’s effect on consumers and the lasting concern about health and immunity. To which I’m highly skeptical. If people are drinking a cocktail infused with botanicals for the immunity, it’s in the same breath that they tell you they drink red wine for their heart; it’s a nice excuse, but its probably not the main driver.
I’m more inclined to believe that botanicals give beverages (and increasing baked goods, dairy products and candies) a fresher, less processed feel. Additionally, and most importantly, I think botanicals allow consumers to re-try flavors they’ve always enjoyed in a new way.
Do you remember the Australian comedy ‘band’ Axis of Awesome? They rose to minor fame a little more than a decade ago with a series of videos showing how many of history’s most popular songs and songwriters (from Elton John to Green Day) rely on the same four chords to make most of their music. The underlying message (spelled out in Derek Thompson’s great book Hit Makers) is that consumers don’t really want ‘new new’ things, they just want old things repackaged as new things (or as I like to call them ‘radically familiar’).
Botanicals allow consumers to go back to flavors that they love, but with a twist. It’s the best kind of experimentation, one that has a higher probability of success. For that reason, I see botanicals growing in popularity across more categories in the year to come.
Non-Alternatives Fight Back
Clover Sonoma has launched a line of Moon Milks that they advertise as ‘liquid namaste.’ Based on ayurveda tradition, the three milks steep spices and herbs with milk to aid in relaxation and wellbeing. The company claims that the products build on the calming effects naturally present in dairy milk (such as magnesium and tryptophan). Varieties include Pink Moon (Cherry Hibiscus), Blue Moon (Blueberry Lavender), Golden Moon (Turmeric Ginger).
Stonegate Farms in the UK has launched a line of enriched eggs exclusively for Sainsbury stores. The eggs come from chickens fed a specific diet to achieve one of three benefits: Energize Eggs (rich in folic acid), Defense Eggs (high in selenium, known to help with immunity) and Multi Vit (containing vitamins B12, D and A).
DoGood Chicken has announced its inaugural launch in stores in the Philadelphia area. The company, Do Good Foods owned by KDC Agribusiness, describes the chicken as being produced in a closed loop system, upcycling waste grocery store surplus into chicken feed to produce a reduced carbon chicken.
Whipnotic is a new US-based whipped cream company that leverages low carb and keto trends, together with new technology, to offer a differentiated product. Whipnotic uses patent-pending tech to dispense real whipped cream with a naturally colored fruit or sweet-infused swirl. Set to launch later this summer on the East Coast, the brand will offer four flavors: Strawberry Swirl, Fudge Brownie, Peach Mango and Vanilla Salted Caramel.
As part of the brand’s ‘Better with Pepsi’ campaign, PepsiCo created Pepsi-roni, pepperoni infused and glazed with Pepsi Zero Sugar with each individual slice emblazed with the Pepsi logo. The company handed out free, limited-edition versions of pizzas with the Pepsi-Roni in Manhattan pizzerias on National Pizza Day (May 20th).
So What?
No matter who you listen to, the market for plant-based, cultivated or fermented alternatives is projected to be huge in the future. Bloomberg’s recent analysis says that plant-based foods will be a $162 billion market by the end of the decade. Whereas banking giant Barkley’s is even more bullish, estimating that alternative meat alone will be a $140 billion market by the end of the decade (about 10% of the $1.4 trillion total global meat category, an estimate that even most meat producers agree with).
I have two issues with these estimates:
1. They always assume a ‘winner take all narrative’ of the future. They see the future of the dairy or meat categories as a showdown equivalent to Betamax versus VHS, CDs versus vinyl or AC versus DC current. Instead, the future of these categories will probably be more like print books versus e-books, ovens versus microwaves, or PC versus Mac. The market and consumers will find a natural equilibrium so that both types of products survive. This equilibrium could be 10/90 or 50/50 but assuming an inevitable takeover is almost certainly incorrect.
2. These estimates also assume an extrapolation based on the status quo. That never happens. The arrival of alternatives has super-charged innovation within the dairy and meat categories. These formally sleepy categories are now churning with new value-added products, new production innovation and new packaging. Products like those listed above are the industry’s reaction to the external force of alternatives. The milk, meat and egg producers will not sit still while alternatives peel off consumers. Instead, we’ll see a massive growth in product improvements and new launches to keep consumers in the category.
While a lot of the attention right now is focused on plant-based and cultivated/fermented products, don’t take your eyes off traditional products that are learning how to create and market their products to a more engaged consumer (e.g., visit the Stonegate Farms eggs site and try to remember that it is NOT advertising a protein bar or trendy wellness elixir).
Lawless Eating
Adapto Foods, a Boulder, Colorado-based company, has launched a line of oatmeal cups boosted with adaptogens. The line-up contains ingredients like lion’s mane mushrooms, gingko, ashwagandha and St. John’s Wort to support the brands different varieties: Happy Oats, Harmony Oats, Focus Oats, Energy Oats and Immunity Oats. Available online, the company plans to expand to offer adaptogens in other foods beyond oatmeal.
Boston-based Guud has expanded their muesli line to include a Fuel line of products. The ‘modern muesli cereal’ is designed to be either eaten out of hand, soaked overnight or cooked like oatmeal. The plant-based, vegan products are available in three varieties: Gut Fuel, Brain Fuel and Athlete Fuel.
Hot Pockets, a Nestle brand, has released DeliWich sandwiches. The line prominently advertises that the sandwiches are thaw and eat OR heat and eat, allowing them to be consumed either directly from the freezer or the lunchbox. DeliWichs will be available later this year in three varieties: Cheddar & Ham, Cheese Melt, and Turkey & Colby.
So What? Brands are constantly on the hunt for growth, launching new products and churning out campaigns to get consumers to buy more. However, what many brands fail to recognize is that incrementality is possible through another tactic: product flexibility.
Consumers are often rigid in their perceptions of products. After being introduced to a product/category few consumers think about the product in any other way. I remember, years ago, talking to a consumer about how they ate bagels. I asked if they ate them toasted or untoasted (“toasted”). When do you eat them? (Incredulous look, “breakfast of course”). Have you ever eaten them for lunch or dinner? (Intrigued, “how would I do that?”) Such as spread with pizza sauce and cheese and heated in a toaster oven (“you can do that!?”).
If you show consumers alternative eating possibilities and reduce the friction of your product being consumed in these ways, frequency of eating can increase. A recent example is refrigerated cookie dough. Its amazing how heat treating the flour and eggs and placing the words ‘eat or bake’ opened up the potential uses and eating occasions for a classic product.
The products above are leaning into this eating flexibility and will likely reap the benefits. Heat or don’t heat. Eat for breakfast, a meal or a snack. Eat it out of hand or eat it in a bowl. We are entering a world where the eating rules and paradigms have been pushed to the side. Those brands that introduce consumers to this new ‘lawless eating’ concept may be the ones that benefit the most.