3 Squares Live is welcoming Locke Hilderbrand to our October show (October 28; 12:00pm Central). Locke is the Chief Insights Officer at WHYSDOM and we’ll be discussing the mysteries of Gen Z. Join us for a great conversation and the ability to ask questions during the show! Register now at the Center for Food Integrity website.
3 Squares the podcast is available wherever you get podcasts (Spotify, Apple, etc.) and 3 Squares Live is now on YouTube. Here is a link to last month’s episode where we talked with our friends at Opopop (and took a quiz on diner slang).
Surface Expertise
Barilla is launching a new line of premium dried pasta called Al Bronzo. The durum semolina pasta is made using a unique micro-engraved bronze die method of extrusion that the brand claims gives the final product a more robust texture and sauce grip. The pasta will be produced in six different shapes and be available for purchase on Amazon in 2022, with retail grocery sales starting 2023. Additionally, the brand is partnering with Nordstrom restaurants nationwide for use on their menus.
Olive oil company Corto has released their latest Fall product line of Agrumato-Method oils. Made by crushing and cold-extracting premium olives along with Calabrian chilis or yuzu citrus (i.e., the agrumato method), the brand claims they create deeper, richer flavors. The box set of two oils is available at the company’s website.
Frozen dumpling and Chinese food producer Xiao Chi Jie (or XCJ, for short) has raised $10 million in their latest round of Series A funding led by Imaginary Ventures. The company, which started out selling soup dumplings at their store in Bellevue Washington, pivoted to ecomm during the pandemic and now plans to enter retail. Thanks to a massive following on TikTok, the company expanded from frozen dumplings into sauces and noodles. As brands like Fly by Jing bring energy into the retail Chinese food category, investors are betting that XCJ may deliver impressive returns. (Personal note: as someone that used to live in Bellevue, I can attest that XCJ’s XLB are near DTF amazing!)
So What? Last weekend, my wife and I stopped at an upscale bar in downtown Denver. While we sat there for only 25 minutes, we heard the same drink being ordered at least 10 times. Customer after customer asked for a Negroni Sbagiato. What’s interesting is not only why so many people ordered this particular drink (I’ll get to that in a second), but how they ordered it. All 10 said, “Negroni Sbagiato… with Prosecco in it.”
If you are completely lost here, let me catch you up. In early October, a clip of Emma D'Arcy and Olivia Cooke of The House of the Dragon was released on TikTok where they talked about their favorite drinks. D’Arcy mentions Negroni Sbagiato, before playfully adding “with prosecco in it.”
Immediately this clip became extremely popular on social media, racking up millions of views. Soon it spilled over into real life, with bartenders stocking up on the ingredients for this (typically) rare drink. What stands out to me—and the bartender I spoke with—is that most people have no idea what they are ordering. Negroni Sbagiato means ‘mistaken’ or ‘broken’ Negroni in Italianany because the traditional gin of a Negroni is replaced with sparkling wine (i.e., Prosecco). So, ordering it by saying “Negroni Sbagiato with Prosecco in it,” is redundant. It’s kind of like saying “I’ll have a cheeseburger, with cheese on it.’ While some people might just find it fun to say the D’Arcy quote, I’m guessing a fair amount just think it makes them sound sophisticated while having no sense of what they are truly ordering.
TikTok is now the 2nd most popular app on phones for those under 35, solidifying media’s move toward extremely rapid-fire content delivery. With this digital medium, and many others like it, the prioritization is a surface level of knowledge. We skim headlines, watch 1-minute video clips, and are bombarded with tweets that distill complex topics. In fact, we see so much of this high-energy information that I believe we confuse frequency for depth. For example, I’ve seen so many carpet cleaning videos, that I’m quite sure I’m an expert on the subject (although I’ve cleaned zero rugs). Similarly, I’ve watched enough extreme pogosticking to feel confident that I’d be amazing on my first attempt.
With food being one of the most popular topics on social media, most people have become surface knowledge experts on everything cooking and eating. For example, after hours of watching extreme meat cooking in their feed (e.g., Max the Meat Guy on TikTok), consumers have heard key words like ‘dry aged,’ ‘crust,’ ‘applewood’ and ‘umami’ hundreds of times. So, when they go to a restaurant or buy meat themselves and see these words mirrored back at them on products, they feel that they are making smart decisions.
That’s what I think we are starting to see with the products above—they are social media premium cues made into product benefits. Consumers that have had a rich diet of pasta videos (e.g., Alex’s very entertaining pasta series) quickly learn that bronze dies make superior pasta. ‘Bronze dies’ then become a shortcut for quality that a brand like Barilla can then use to gain credibility (even with the brand’s current legal problems).
So, what we are seeing evolve is a marketing ouroboros. Social media gives consumers insider key words, these key words form the basis of a surface knowledge of quality in a category, then brands feed these key words back to consumers to spur sales. For brands to keep up, they must mine social media for what constitutes these quality cues and play them back to consumers.
Edge Cases
Last week, Single & Fat launched as a new addition to the olive oil category. The 100% USDA certified organic, single batch oil (packaged in a bright pink can) is produced on small farms across Italy. Co-founder Matt Cruz told Foodbev.com, “At the end of the day, we just wanted to make something that was fun and unexpected — a brand that sparked conversation and a product that was genuinely good.” The oil is available on the company’s website.
Immorel is a new Brooklyn-based beverage company making canned sparkling teas. The drinks combine functional mushroom extracts, fruit juices and botanicals to produce healthy soda-alternatives. Varieties include Wake the Eff Up (Cordyceps mushrooms, blood orange and cinnamon) and Slow Ur Roll (Reishi mushroom, Mango and Chamomile). Available on the company’s website.
Marketed as a ‘not-better-for-you alternative,’ ffups (“It’s like puffs spelled backward, but wrong”) is a sweet and savory new brand producing puffed corn snacks. Using untraditional flavor names (e.g., Grocery Store Cheddar), bold messaging (“Not Healthy”), and “comically large bags,” the brand takes a different approach to snacks. Available in five varieties: Professional Salt & Vinegar, Grocery Store Cheddar, Instant Hot Chocolate, Semi-Historic Sour Cream & Onion, Unambiguous Cinnamon Toast
Cards Against Humanity has launched a clam-flavored mayonnaise called Clam-O-Naise at Target. Each jar contains 30 of the controversial game-makers’ playing cards hidden inside the mayo. Also potentially buried inside are clam-themed prizes like the chance to win pearls or a ‘Toyota Clamry.’ Unfortunate (as of this writing) Clam-O-Naise has sold out on Target.com.
So What? What says authentic to consumers? Not pictures of your founder on your website or your employees’ ‘stories’ on the back of your package. That might have worked 10 years ago, but consumers have (correctly) figured out that all of these ‘folksy’ authenticity levers have been workshopped and focus-grouped to maximize consumer empathy. However, there is one area, one ‘tell,’ that still says to consumers, ‘this wasn’t made by a corporation’— edginess.
You see, corporate launches all ‘feel’ the same. It’s like watching a CBS comedy or Amazon Prime drama. You can’t put your finger on what it is, but there is a cookie cutter repetition to their aesthetic. This isn’t just because they are created by people that all get their MBA at the same school or because their creative all goes through the same four agencies. It’s because they are all created by committee, and the larger the company, the more committees they travel through. What started off as a product or campaign with a prickly POV slowly gets sanded down over a series of meetings into a bland and inoffensive offering.
So, when consumers see products with a definitive edge, that may offend some sensitive viewers, they perk up. They know that this product or campaign is more likely the result of a small team’s efforts and comes mostly unpolished, warts and all. That’s the new authentic.
Of course, this isn’t new. Brands like Burger King and Taco Bell have been riding a wave of edgy advertising for years. However, there is nothing inherently controversial about either of these iconic fast-food brands. Edginess is just a veneer they’ve adopted to appeal to young consumers; in some markets they are downright wholesome. What’s new is that we are seeing brands being created with this provocation embedded in their purpose.
Honestly, after the avalanche of TV shows and book titles containing the F-word a few years ago (F*ck, That’s Delicious, The Subtle Art of Not Giving a F*ck, I Used to Be a Miserable F*ck, etc.), I’m surprised this blunt, contentious approach hasn’t moved into CPG brands faster.
Snack Bars: Hard or Soft (Health)?
Dave’s Killer Bread (owned by Flower’s Foods) is testing a line of organic snack bars in TX and the D.C.-area. Each baked bar contains 16g+ of wholegrains and 5-6g of fiber. Varieties include Cocoa Brownie Blitz, Trail Mix Crumble, and Oat-Rageous Honey Almond. The bars also contain a mix of the seeds and grains consumers associate with the brand’s breads.
Supplement company Standard Process has launched a new whole food brand called Possible. The new brand offers powdered proteins, supergreens, as well as snack bars and meal bars. The organic vegan/dairy-free snack bars and meal bars contain 10g and 20g of plant protein, respectively. The bars are marketed as ‘whole food, clean-label’ that ‘help everyone from dedicated adventurers to everyday athletes follow their dreams and reach new levels.’
Big Little Bar, a brand focused on woman’s nutrition in the snack space, has launched their wellness bar containing “100 percent of the essential vitamins and Omega-3s women need.” Specifically, the bar offers nutrients for brain, heart and beauty, with 1750 mg of Omega-3s and 100% RDA of vitamin A, E, and Biotin. The brand markets the bar as a multivitamin replacement (“Pro Food, Not Pills”). The bars (currently in one flavor: Chocolate Cranberry Lemon) are available on the company’s website.
Step One Foods has launched a line of foods clinically proven to lower cholesterol. The brand offers a range of snack bars, oatmeal, pancake and smoothie mixes, as well as grain-based sprinkles. The products, developed by a Mayo Clinic/John Hopkins-trained physician (Elizabeth Klodas, MD), have been shown to lower cholesterol in clinical trials (on average by 9% across participants). The snack bars contain a mix of whole food fiber, omega-3 fatty acids, antioxidants, and plant sterols to achieve their cholesterol-lowering benefit.
So What? The snack bar category saw a sharp decline at the beginning of the pandemic but had a turnaround in 2021. However, post-pandemic the category appears to be changing. WFH schedules and less lunch boxes has meant cereal bar sales have softened, while functional health bar sales (e.g., protein bars, wellness bars, etc.) have soared. Bars ‘with a purpose’ seem to be what consumers are looking for, along with ingredients that everyone can feel good about.
While all that sounds good on paper, on shelf it’s a bit more confusing. Right now, there are two distinct camps of ‘functional’ bars: hard health and soft health. Hard health bars are full of claims, ingredient heroes (e.g., omega-3) and numbers (e.g., 100%), while soft health bars lean on words like ‘whole food,’ ‘clean’ and ‘natural.’
While this dichotomy isn’t new (i.e., hard health is very 1980’s, while soft health gained popularity in the 90-00’s) it’s now taking place at an interesting time. The FDA is rethinking what ‘healthy’ means, emphasizing whether a food fits into a healthy dietary pattern overall, as opposed to just focusing on a food’s individual nutrients. This holistic view of a food’s health could be a game-changer in the snack aisle, where some brands elevate a ‘healthy’ ingredient while being built on a high sugar/high sat fat base.
Net-net: I think we are due for a shake-up in the hard v. soft health bar category.
The New American Food Revival
Whole Foods released their top 10 trends for 2023 and yaupon made the list as ‘new brew.’ Known as America’s only native caffeinated plant, yaupon (not to be confused with yacon, which had a wellness moment a few years ago) was very popular with indigenous groups (and early colonists) but forgotten with the import of tea and coffee. However now it is making a comeback in a variety of kombuchas and teas. For example, Austin-based Rambler just launched their yaupon-fueled Energy Drinks.
The James Beard Best New Restaurant in the United States for 2022 is Owamni in Minneapolis. This is the first decolonized menu restaurant to win the award. This means that meals at Owamni never use ingredients introduced to North America after Europeans arrived – including cane sugar, wheat, dairy, pork and chicken. Instead, only indigenous ingredients like turkey, bison, walleye, beans, wild rice, mushrooms, sweet potatoes, herbs, maple syrup and blue corn are featured, along with less well-known items like crickets, acorns and timpsula (aka prairie turnip).
Pawpaws are having a renaissance. The native America fruit (whose taste is often described as a mix between a banana and a mango) are gaining cult status with food lovers. Pawpaw festivals are popping up around the US and breaking attendance records, bartenders are including them in drinks, and green grocers across the Midwest and East coast are starting to stock the enigmatic fruit. Once an extremely common fruit in the pre-modernized US (it fed the 1806 Lewis and Clark Expedition as well as supplemented the meager rations of enslaved Africans), pawpaws are now being bred to survive modern supply chain distribution.
So What? Thomas Jefferson was one of America’s first foodies. He traveled Europe buying ice cream and pasta makers, stealing Italian rice to grow on his farm in Monticello, then serving it all to his friends at grand feasts. However, not everyone was happy with Jefferson’s love of European food. Founding father Patrick Henry once criticized Jefferson by saying, “he has abjured his native victuals in favor of French cuisine” (trust me, that was a sick burn in the 1700’s).
Over the centuries, America has gone through cycles of either shunning our native foods/cuisines or embracing them. I predict we are entering an American Food Revival unlike anything we’ve seen in modern times. Not just a celebration of American cuisines (e.g., New Southern Cooking) but a turn toward foods with stronger American heritage. There are several forces pushing us in this direction:
· Supply Chain Reassessment: The pandemic exposed the danger of relying on far-flung supply chains for production. This may make American grown/produced items more appealing
· Rising Cost of Foreign Goods: With war in Europe and economic instability rising in other sectors, US-produced items may be more cost effective
· Sustainability: It’s difficult to zero out the carbon footprint of Gala apples shipped from New Zealand. As more items are advertised with sustainability metrics, American grown items will be easier to justify.
· Foraging: During COVID, foraging became a mini-trend as people began to explore the native foods around them. This appears to be sparking a new appreciation of local possibilities.
· National Pride: Think of ‘Made in America’ stickers as just Phase 1. While pushing for manufacturing to return to the US is well-established, American-centric foods could be phase 2.
· Rise of Urban/Vertical Farming: As companies like Bowery Farming and Gotham Greens gain prominence, they are changing the perception (and the possibilities) of what local can mean to consumers.
Old-School Indulgence
Fannie May is launching two new lines of packaged retail chocolate offerings: Fannie May Premium Chocolate Bars and Rocky Road Chocolatier's Mix. The 3.5oz bars will be available in four separate flavors at the company’s retail stores and ecomm, Walgreens and select retailers. The mix comes in three different sizes (2-oz., 7.5-oz. and 18-oz. bags) and will be exclusive to Sam’s Club and Fannie May stores.
Entenmann's (a Bimbo Bakery brand) is launching a line of chocolate cake truffles. Available in two flavors, Chocolate Delight and Cookies & Crème, the truffles come in packages of eight, wrapped in twos.
General Mills Foodservice has launched retail-ready Pillsbury Cinnamon Rolls in grocery store bakeries. The pre-frosted rolls come in 3.5-ounce packages and are ready to be sold immediately after being thawed. The product comes frozen in cases of 12 clamshell packs with a suggested price point of $6.99.
So What? While everyone is rushing to invent new indulgence brands, its easy to forget the power of existing classics. Too often indulgence is defined only in functional terms, giving the ingredients top billing. However, I would contend that indulgence is primarily emotion-centric, giving iconic brands a leg-up on new competition. While Fannie May chocolate isn’t couverture, for many consumers it was their first chocolate, and it is associated with warm feelings of family, celebrations and home.
For iconic indulgence brands there is a big opportunity to take advantage of existing positive emotional baggage. Of course, it’s a tightrope; create new products to stimulate incrementality, while maintaining enough of the nostalgia to keep the emotions salient.